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Thursday, January 19, 2006

Iran's Redefined Strategy

With thanks to www.stratfor.com

Iran's Redefined Strategy
By George Friedman

The Iranians have broken the International Atomic Energy Agency seals on some of their nuclear facilities. They did this very deliberately and publicly to make certain that everyone knew that Tehran was proceeding with its nuclear program. Prior to this, and in parallel, the Iranians began to -- among other things -- systematically bait the Israelis, threatening to wipe them from the face of the earth.

The question, of course, is what exactly the Iranians are up to. They do not yet have nuclear weapons. The Israelis do. The Iranians have now hinted that (a) they plan to build nuclear weapons and have implied, as clearly as possible without saying it, that (b) they plan to use them against Israel. On the surface, these statements appear to be begging for a pre-emptive strike by Israel. There are many things one might hope for, but a surprise visit from the Israeli air force is not usually one of them. Nevertheless, that is exactly what the Iranians seem to be doing, so we need to sort this out.

Continue reading over here.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dangerous is a light word


1/19/2006 09:24:00 AM  
Anonymous lee pletzers said...

What the fuck are they thinking?

The end of the world is coming.

1/19/2006 01:31:00 PM  
Blogger Alan Howard said...

Who are you referring to? Iran, or Stratfor?

1/19/2006 01:54:00 PM  
Anonymous lee pletzers said...

the Iranians

1/20/2006 05:38:00 AM  
Blogger Alan Howard said...

Every day, thousands of people die. It's the end of the world for them! Every day is the end of the world for someone, and any conflict with Iran will be no different to any other conflict throughout history. People will die, people will live. The world will go on. :-)

1/20/2006 11:20:00 AM  
Blogger Chancelucky said...

I've actually been reading George Friedman's book "America's Secret War", well actually listening to it on tape.

I don't agree with him on a lot of things, but it's a serious attempt to be objective about current US Middle East policy, though he's convinced that this is "War" and must be strategized only in that form.

1/20/2006 01:54:00 PM  
Blogger Alan Howard said...

You think it's not already a war?

1/20/2006 01:58:00 PM  
Blogger Chancelucky said...

I think it's a different kind of war, so I don't think military objectives in the conventional sense work. In Afghanistan for instance, the US took out the Taliban's "command and control" centers which would be a perfectly sensible strategy in a military war. It didn't really get the US what it needed to get there.

1/21/2006 05:04:00 AM  

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